1. Your Time Is Up
We live in an epoch changing time. The end of the millennium, the
end of the century, the end of
the ideological era. It is all global border-lines, challenging us
to find global answers, large-scale
reflections. However, within the smaller cycle of our Russian social
life the obvious 'volte-face' is
taking place. It is going to be quite comparable with perestroika and
“democratization” in its
significance and consequences. In the ideological sense, perestroika
was the transitional period
from late Soviet, nominally socialist society, to the liberal and democratic
model. The term
“post-perestroika” has been applied to the description of that political,
ideological and cultural
model, which appeared after the radical break with the Soviet past
and the establishment of the
western capitalist market system in Russia.
This "post-perestroika” started after August of 1991 and has generally
lasted until now. 1991-1998:
This is the epoch of the post-Soviet liberal and democratic period
of modern Russian history. The
essence of the ideological moment is in the fact that “post-perestroika”
is swiftly coming to an end.
The time of Russian liberalism is approaching its end. We are at the
beginning of a completely new
cultural and ideological reality, which is as different from the previous
years of “Yeltsinism” as
“Yeltsinism” itself was different from the Soviet epoch. Already now
it is possible to draw some
conclusions about the structure of the new coming epoch of Russian
history.
Let us look more closely at the future.
2. The Slow Change of Consciousness
The main postulate of the Russian ruling elite in the liberal period
was confidence in the fact that
confrontation with the West resulted from the difference of social,
economic and ideological
models. On the basis of this, all the economic, political, foreign,
cultural, and defence strategy of
the Russian Federation was built. The country's leaders seriously thought
that giving up the
Marxist "look" along with the socialist economy would automatically
create a balanced system in
Russia with the active and friendly cooperation of the West. This was
a fatal mistake and it took a
decade to realize it. With the obvious appearance of geopolitical factors,
everyone realized that the
cold war was not just a display of an ideological duel, but the display
of a historical constant, not
dependent on social or political up-to-dateness. It was just one of
the stages in the “great war of
continents”.
The West, in response to the disbandment of the Warsaw treaty organization,
considered the
further strengthening of NATO to be the best solution, probably for
want of a better one. When
everything no longer under Russian influence was taken over by this
aggressive, atlantist,
domination-longing bloc, the Russian political elite and intellectuals
gradually began to sober up.
“Nezavisimaya gazeta” was the mouthpiece of that process, but you could
easily find similar trends
in other newspapers, which once recklessly sang of Westernism and glorified
liberalism. The
patriotic forces played a considerable role too, turning in upholding
their principles to more
modern and adequate terminology together with the archaic theses. Without
the opposition's
conceptual creative work (i.e. the publications “Den”, “Zavtra”, “Sovetskaya
Rossia”, “Elementy”
etc.), the centrist and conformist press would have arrived at the
same conclusion much later.
The patriotic opposition in politics also performed a similar function,
helping the authorities
realize the obvious geopolitical axioms. So, today, it is obvious that
any kind of authority in the
Kremlin (except evident maniacs or direct influence agents) cannot
ignore the geopolitical realities.
Thus they cannot but be critical of both the West and its ideological
cover, liberalism, that turned
out to be a screen for the direct predatory and egoistic colonial interests
of Atlantist civilization,
building its own “new world order” to the detriment of all other countries,
nations, cultures, and
traditions.
3. The Revolutionary and Evolutionary Way
The final form of the Russian post-liberal model can proceed in
two ways. The first way is a
revolutionary one. It presupposes the political turn-around (probably
resulting from quite
democratic presidential elections), after which the people from the
patriotic opposition camp come
to the supreme power. This process is going to be extremely difficult
and troublesome, for the
revolutionary rise, that might ensure the considerable support to restorationist
actions, is not yet
about to happen.
Besides, the foreign reaction would be so negative that all the structural
mechanisms of influence
inside the Russian Federation would be immediately put into action
for all the disastrous separatist
processes to be activated. The opposition, having lost the habit of
being the executive power, being
narrow-minded and antiquated, additionally lacking a real cultural
and ideological programme,
mediacratic structures, futuristic project etc., it can scarcely manage
the global, almost insoluble
task, to reverse the process of destruction, especially as there will
be no support from abroad.
Moreover, it is obvious that the patriotic leaders, having come to supreme
power in the country, in
order to stay in control of it, will mostly have to repeat all those
steps and verbal promises, which
are abundantly (though less and less honestly) given out by today's
authorities. There are
obviously no prerequisites for mobilization for total resistance, autarchy
and a new stage of “cold
war”. It is paradoxical, but should the patriotic opposition win, the
real geopolitical position of
Russia not only won`t improve, but will more likely get worse. And
to just maintain the *status
quo*, its leaders will have to make the same (if not greater) concessions
to the West, as today`s
authorities do. But the liberal epoch in Russia is deemed to end soon,
the objective events and
logic itself considers such an outcome the most probable one.
The other way is the evolutionary one. It supposes the gradual and mild
shift of the Russian
political elite to Eurasian positions. That shift won`t be accompanied
with radical slogans and a
declaration of some “new policy”. On the contrary, the authorities
will actively and on a large
scale play a double game, outwardly continuing the declaration of adherence
to “democratic
values”, but inwardly restoring little by little the base for the global
autarchy (in economic,
cultural and social spheres). In this way following the post-World
War II example of Germany and
Japan. It might be some kind of “Eurasian capitalism”, not too different
by the geopolitical
criteria from moderate and limited socialism with a distinctly expressed
patriotic background. This
process is already going on, and it is connected exactly with the actual
administration and
personality of Boris Yeltsin, who remains true to himself in any kind
of situation. He sharply feels
the change of ideological winds and can effectively use it for seizure
and keeping control of power.
But not only Boris Yeltsin personally is associated with this evolutionary
way. All other real
presidential aspirants will have to pursue the same policy, be it Luzhkov,
Chernomyrdin or
Nemtsov.
4. The Insane General is the Last Chance for the West
The only thing that can stop the inevitable advent of a new post-liberal
epoch is the intrusion of a
clearly disastrous, chaotic factor, capable of changing the logical
evolution of the Russian political
reality. This threat now has a face and a name. Under the cover of
a beautiful name, the historical
monster hides, quite comparable in a sense with the most disastrous
stages of Gorbachev and
Yeltsin. The "general", risen from hell, brings with himself such unpredictability,
such dark
absurdity, such inhumanity, along with a chemically active impulse,
that in a given situation he
may be brought to power by certain circles not interested in the revolutionary
nor evolutionary
movement of Russia towards a Eurasian position. The people's self-
consciousness is distracted,
confused, lost. It is almost impossible to swiftly realize the changing
ideological trends. It is quite
possible that the most negative, absolutely Atlantist forces will use
this all national confusion,
tenaciously and with substantial financial help, to fatally promote
the only person who capable of
bringing the unhappy nation to a third nightmare circuit.
Only this fatal character can stop the fall of liberalism in Russia
and, unfortunately, Western
analysts and their Russian fanatical followers clearly realize this.
5. What Has Not Yet Been
The post-liberal epoch in Russia is evidently coming. Except for
the last (but still less likely)
variant, all models of further political development will ultimately
bring us to the process of a
gradual Eurasian rebirth, to the normalization of the historical course,
to the realization of the
necessity for Russia to pursue a unique, cultural, geopolitical, social
and economic way. We live at
a breaking point.
The authorities and cultural semi-officials are ripe to give way to
patriotic policy. This process
started with the most compromised variants, and it reminds us of humiliation,
bribery and
corruption rather than genuine dialogue. But this time is up. Those
who used to wake up ealry and
run after the spice-cake, they also faded in a moment. Besides,
the Russian political elite today
needs original non-conformist, creative constructions, myths, and models
of interpretational,
ideological and cultural forms. Even authority, which comes due to
political patriotic revolution,
will also need them. There cannot be the direct return to the past,
the direct restoration. There is
no possibility of that happening.
Nothing of what belonged to the past ideological epochs, both Soviet
and liberal, cannot be just
applied without the thorough re-interpretation, revision, and comparison
to the realities of the
modern historical and geopolitical situation in the world. We should
find new names and terms for
everything, new concepts and mythologemas. It is clear that no one
is able to invent everything
anew. We talk about turning to the traditional values, the ever Eurasian
constants, and also to the
newest advanced technologies and systems developing all over the world,
but they all should be in
a new way re- interpreted, refreshed, and critically revised. That`s
what the epoch and history
demands from us, NOT a new social and cultural contract of sale. The
post-liberal era is at a
threshold. What will it be? What has not yet been. Much of this issue
depends on us, our
imagination, our will, our intellect, our honesty and readiness to
start everything from the
beginning again. |
