Peak
in volatility can change investors' future expectations, as the memory of it
stays with investors for a while and works its way into the markets. Currently
we are seeing high volatility in the oil market, but most financial markets are
experiencing very low volatility, in some ways inexplicably low. Trying to
search for an explanation, the best we have been able to do is an idea offered
by Byron Wien — that when people don't know what to do, they often feel the
safest thing is to do nothing.
Venting imbalances.
Financial markets have long served the painful but useful purpose of venting
imbalances in the real economy; while the tensions of America's twin deficits in
1987 were vented in equity markets, other asset markets could give way this time
— namely, the dollar, the bond market, credit markets, or even property.
(see
below the Japanese Negative Impacts from Deflation)
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